I co-authored an article for Geophysical Research Letters about why overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is not a good indicator of the risk for hurricane landfalls in the United States. Check it out to learn about our Landfall Diagnostic Index (LDI) and how it offers physical insight into the tension between conditions likely to steer hurricanes toward the U.S. and conditions favorable for TC development.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070117/full

.